Short Term Strengthening and Impact on Longer Term Track: Analyzing the spread of outcomes in weather models, the tracks that are on the western side of guidance and making US landfall are generally solutions that are stronger with the strengthening of Henri in the next 24-48 hours.These data will increasingly help weather models narrow down the solution of possibilities for Henri. More Data from Aircraft and Weather Balloons: Four hurricane hunter flights are scheduled today to fly into Henri as well as take measurements of the western Atlantic atmosphere around Henri.

Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds Onshore: On account of the westward shift, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting the probability of tropical storm force winds for the following coastal locations today.

However, the last 12-24 hours of Henri's track before potential New England impact will track over notably cooler waters, with an expectation that Henri will decrease to tropical storm strength before a possible landfall.

Intensity Forecast - Short Term Strengthening, Longer Term Weakening: Sea surface temperatures are anomalously warm ahead of Henri, which will allow for strengthening into a category 1 or 2 hurricane by Saturday, including tracking over the Gulf Stream.

These data will help clarify whether Henri makes a close approach to the North America coastline with minimal impacts or ultimately makes landfall. Inclusion of more frequent weather balloon launches and commencement of hurricane hunter flight data into weather models will continue to provide clarity on the forecast of Henri. Recent verification decreases confidence in a track directly out to sea.

Why the Shift Towards the US/Canada Coast? Over the last two days, Henri has verified on the southwestern edge of weather models as the tropical storm slowly tracks southwest of Bermuda.

Wind reports of isolated damage were reported through the Mid-Atlantic yesterday, along with rainfall totals of 3-6'.

Remnants of Fred: Rainfall associated with the remnants of TS Fred are moving through New England today and Atlantic Canada tomorrow.

Grace will emerge into the Bay of Campeche later today and make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico tomorrow as a category-1 hurricane. Grace Makes Landfall on the Eastern Yucatan Peninsula: The forecast for Grace verified, making landfall just south of Tulum, Mexico early Thursday morning with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.These shifts increase the risk for tropical storm impacts by Sunday for New England and possibly Atlantic Canada by Monday. Henri a Threat to New England by Sunday: Weather models are notably slower and further west with Henri over the last two days.An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain was forecast through Monday for parts of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania. Stamford received 2.73 inches of rain.Ĭolchester in New London County received 4.24 inches, while Groton received 4.03 inches.Ī Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for much of the tristate region for Monday. Danbury in Fairfield County saw 5.07 inches. Totals in Connecticut were not as dramatically high. In Passaic County, Ringwood got 8.70 inches from the storm and West Milford had 8.20 inches.Ĭranbury in Middlesex County received 8.91 inches of rain. Harrison in Hudson County got 8.02 inches. Large parts of New Jersey received more than 5 inches of rain, with Oakland in Bergen County getting 9.22 inches. RELATED: HENRI BRINGS FLOODING, RESCUES IN NEW JERSEY in Central Park, 1.94 inches of rain fell, making it the wettest hour on record for the city. Tarrytown had 5.24 inches and Hartsdale had about 5 inches.Īccording to the National Weather Service, Henri made Saturday the rainiest day in New York City since 2014, with the majority of the 4.45 inches of rain falling over a 2-hour period. In Westchester County, New Rochelle recorded the most with 6.30 inches. Military Academy in West Point had just under 6 inches. North of the city, Chester in Orange County had 6.90 inches and the U.S. In Suffolk County the highest amounts were in Copiague where 5.73 inches of rain fell. Port Washington and Wantagh had more than 5 ½ inches. On Long Island, Nassau County's Great Neck and Seaford had at least 6 inches of rain. Parts of Staten Island received a little more than 5 inches.

Henri rainfall totals